The Western Cape is likely to reach peak mortality rate between June 23 and July 7

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering Introduction The Western Cape is approaching peak mortality rate for Covid-19 and should reach this point before July 7. This prediction is based on the most up to date information emerging in the Western Cape. Most countries follow a consistent trajectory which can be modelled mathematically and then used for shortContinue reading “The Western Cape is likely to reach peak mortality rate between June 23 and July 7”

Advertisement

The rate of increase in Covid-19 cases in the Western Cape is starting to slow down – v.4 31/5

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering Introduction As this post reaches its fourth revision, it is becoming increasingly information-dense, based on criticism received from, amongst others, Dr Harry Moultrie of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (who remains fiercely critical). There are strong indications that daily new Covid-19 cases in the Western Cape are not increasing exponentiallyContinue reading “The rate of increase in Covid-19 cases in the Western Cape is starting to slow down – v.4 31/5”

SA Covid-19 models may grossly overestimate the number of active cases

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering News24 published a model provided by MediClinic of known active Covid-19 cases per province over the next 9 months. It peaks at 200 000 known active Covid-19 cases for the Western Cape. This scenario is highly unlikely and grossly overestimates Covid-19 cases. 200 000 known active cases in 5.283 million peopleContinue reading “SA Covid-19 models may grossly overestimate the number of active cases”

Balancing the health risks and benefits of lockdown measures

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering South Africa is in a unique position where we must weigh up serious health risks exacerbated by lockdown measures with the protective factors of lockdown measures in terms of Covid-19. We cannot solely rely on WHO guidelines. The WHO guidelines for relaxing lockdown measures do not consider the negative consequences associatedContinue reading “Balancing the health risks and benefits of lockdown measures”

Covid-19: A call for smart mitigation measures considering the reduced risk for South Africa from Covid-19 – version 2

Introduction Piet Streicher PhD Engineering South Africa is likely to have 4 times fewer deaths compared to Italy due to our younger population. In Italy, 22% of all people are over 65 years of age, and this age group represented 91% of all Covid-19 deaths. In South Africa, only 5% of all people are overContinue reading “Covid-19: A call for smart mitigation measures considering the reduced risk for South Africa from Covid-19 – version 2”

Covid-19: Reasons for everyone to wear homemade face masks in public and in the care situation amid the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown

Homemade face masks will prevent asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people from spreading droplets containing the Covid-19 virus.