The Western Cape is likely to reach peak mortality rate between June 23 and July 7

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering Introduction The Western Cape is approaching peak mortality rate for Covid-19 and should reach this point before July 7. This prediction is based on the most up to date information emerging in the Western Cape. Most countries follow a consistent trajectory which can be modelled mathematically and then used for short

The rate of increase in Covid-19 cases in the Western Cape is starting to slow down – v.4 31/5

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering Introduction As this post reaches its fourth revision, it is becoming increasingly information-dense, based on criticism received from, amongst others, Dr Harry Moultrie of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (who remains fiercely critical). There are strong indications that daily new Covid-19 cases in the Western Cape are not increasing exponentially

SA Covid-19 models may grossly overestimate the number of active cases

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering News24 published a model provided by MediClinic of known active Covid-19 cases per province over the next 9 months. It peaks at 200 000 known active Covid-19 cases for the Western Cape. This scenario is highly unlikely and grossly overestimates Covid-19 cases. 200 000 known active cases in 5.283 million people

Balancing the health risks and benefits of lockdown measures

Piet Streicher PhD Engineering South Africa is in a unique position where we must weigh up serious health risks exacerbated by lockdown measures with the protective factors of lockdown measures in terms of Covid-19. We cannot solely rely on WHO guidelines. The WHO guidelines for relaxing lockdown measures do not consider the negative consequences associated

Covid-19: A call for smart mitigation measures considering the reduced risk for South Africa from Covid-19 – version 2

Introduction Piet Streicher PhD Engineering South Africa is likely to have 4 times fewer deaths compared to Italy due to our younger population. In Italy, 22% of all people are over 65 years of age, and this age group represented 91% of all Covid-19 deaths. In South Africa, only 5% of all people are over

Covid-19: Reasons for everyone to wear homemade face masks in public and in the care situation amid the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown

Homemade face masks will prevent asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people from spreading droplets containing the Covid-19 virus.